US recession probabilities refer to the likelihood that the US economy will enter a recession, which is defined as a period of negative economic growth. There are a number of ways to measure recession probabilities, including looking at economic indicators such as GDP growth, employment, and industrial production, as well as financial market indicators such as stock prices and bond yields.
Recession probabilities can impact the stock market in several ways. First, a high probability of a recession can lead to increased investor uncertainty and risk aversion, which can cause stock prices to decline. This is because during a recession, economic activity slows down, corporate profits may decline, and unemployment may increase, which can all be negative for stocks. As a result, investors may sell stocks and move their money into safer assets such as cash or government bonds, which can lead to a decline in stock prices.
On the other hand, if recession probabilities are low, investors may have more confidence in the economy and be more willing to take on risk, which can lead to higher stock prices.
US Recession Probabilities Market Alerts alert you whenever a new US recession probability numbers are released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis on a monthly basis.
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